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Learn about international institutions' estimates of Turkey's losses after the devastating earthquake

 Global international institutions and organizations have not ceased to account for the material losses of the earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria last February.

On February 6, Turkey's south and northern Syria hit an earthquake with 7.7 magnitude on the Richter scale, followed by another with 7.6 magnitude and thousands of violent aftershocks, killing tens of thousands of people and causing huge physical destruction.

From that day until early March, more than 11 thousand and 400 aftershocks were observed by earthquake monitoring institutions in Turkey and neighbouring countries.

Learn about international institutions' estimates of Turkey's losses after the devastating earthquake

World Bank estimates:

The World Bank's preliminary report, issued at the end of last month, is the latest statement by these international institutions and organizations regarding the material losses suffered by Turkey as a result of the earthquakes.

The World Bank has estimated that the devastating earthquakes cost $34.2 billion in material damage, or about 4% of GDP for 2021.

The Director of the World Bank's Turkey office Humberto Lopez said the Bank would also revise its forecast of a 2023 reduction in Turkey's GDP due to the earthquake losses to the economy, reducing this year's growth estimates from 4% to 3.5%.

The World Bank stated that more than half of the costs stemmed from residential buildings, adding that serious damage to infrastructure, including railways, highways and bridges, had also been taken into account.

The analysis excludes indirect or secondary effects of earthquakes, as "recovery and construction costs can multiply when other factors such as price increases and emergency response costs are taken into account".

According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the earthquakes have caused tremendous destruction in the 62 of the district, 10,000 and 190 villages in the states of the afflicted region, and the tremors continue.

Search and rescue efforts ended, while debris removal activities began in the affected cities, using thousands of construction equipment and trucks, which are working to clear debris.

Different estimates of Turkey's earthquake losses:

Reports about the disaster's impact vary widely:

  • Bloomberg Economics announced earlier last month that earthquake losses could be 1% of GDP.
  • In contrast, US bank J.P. Morgan said in a report last month that the direct costs of destroying physical structures could be up to $25 billion, or 2.5% of the country's GDP.
  • Business groups and economists have also said that rebuilding could cost Turkey as much as $100 billion, eliminating between one and two percentage points of the country's projected economic growth in 2023.
  • In the middle of last month, Turkey's Federation of Companies and Businesses estimated the damage at $84 billion, or 10% of the country's gross product. According to the Union's statement, the devastating earthquake caused the destruction of some $70.8 billion in residential buildings, together with another $10.4 billion in loss of national income, as well as workforce losses that could cost Turkey's economy $2.9 billion, as the earthquake hit 10 provinces and severely affected millions of people in Turkey, as well as neighboring Syria.
  • The Turkish Company and Business Federation's calculations were based on the earthquake of 1999, which was close to Istanbul, and killed some 18 thousand people, with the toll of the victims of the current disaster far exceeding the earthquake of 1999.
  • The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said the potential economic fallout from the earthquake could result in a decline of 1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) during the year. This is about $9 billion compared to an official estimate of $867 billion in GDP.
  • Verisk said last February that the value of the earthquake losses would likely exceed $20 billion.


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